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  Skating on Thin Ice

    Arabia Monitor’s monthly publication provides a timely snapshot of most notable recent developments in the dynamic
    MENA region. We feature here some of the latest thinking from Dr Florence Eid, CEO and Chief Economist of Arabia
    Monitor and her colleagues.

Florence Eid, Ph.D, Chief                       UAE, a strong supporter of the                 -	 The best-case scenario is
Economist Waleed Shoukry,                       Tobruk-based House of Represent-                    that Kobler addresses all of
Head of MENA Credit & FX                        atives (HoR) and General Khalifa                    the GNC’s concerns with the
Strategy Charlene Rahall, Faris                 Haftar.                                             document, while showing a
Al-Sulayman, Yifu Jia, Hadi                                                                         great deal of diplomatic skill
Makarem, Ph.D, Analysts                            -	 Given the clear conflict of                   to restore confidence in the
                                                       interest, the Tripolibased                   UN and the mediation pro-
  •	 As Iran gears up to boost oil                     General National Congress                    cess.
                                                       (GNC) has insisted that
       exports, Saudi Arabia did not                   further amendments should               -	 The worst-case scenario is
       announce a reversal in its oil                  be made to the Libyan Po-                    that the LPA remains unac-
       policy at the 4 December OPEC                   litical Agreement (LPA), put                 cepted, further damaging the
       meeting.                                        forward by Leon, before they                 work of the dialogue and pre-
                                                       would consider it again.                     cluding the UN from making
  •	 Splits in Tunisia’s ruling party will                                                          progress, with no alternative
                                                   - However, Kobler has indicated                  in sight. n
       resonate with a public frustrated               that he is opposed to any
       with a struggling economy and                   changes in the main text of   Click here to read more.
       mounting security threats.                      Leon’s LPA.

  •	 Though Assad’s fate remains a          •	 In November, Kobler met with HoR

       bone of contention, the immediate        and GNC representatives.
       question is: Who in the opposition
       is a terrorist and who will be part
       of the Syria peace talks?

  •	 Chinese FDI to Algeria has grown

       from USD 11.2M in 2004 to USD
       665M in 2014, representing 80%
       of China’s total FDI in North

Libya: Fallout from the Leon

New Special Envoy to Libya, Martin
Kobler, now has the difficult task
of rebuilding trust in the UN as an
impartial mediator in dialogue talks.

  •	 Kobler’s predecessor, Bernardino

       Leon, had close relations with the

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